Predictive sports betting analytics tools are the closest thing you can get to Biff's all-knowing Sports Almanac from Back to the Future 2. While nothing is foolproof, betting analytics data crunching combines modern computing power with massive amounts of results and betting input to give you real-time insight into your sports handicapping.
Depending on the analytics service you subscribe to, you'll get daily or weekly algorithm-driven sports betting predictions and trends you can apply to your sports bets or daily fantasy contests.
Our experts highlight the most important stats they use when betting on the NFL. There are a bevy of NFL statistics at our finger tips, but which are the most important to consider when betting? A panel of our top experts reveal the stats they use to inform their analysis and picks, from turnover margin to special teams and everything in-between. Nov 25, 2020 I have done at least one sports analytics example before, but this time I am going to focus on historical betting analysis from a database of Vegas NFL lines. However, I am going to focus as much on the process of analysis and give sports analytics examples of what a data science project could look like. Smarter Sports Betting We deliver accurate, algorithm-driven predictions & easy-to-use tools to help you make better bets on every game, player market, and statistic in the NBA, NFL, MLB & NHL. Point spread, totals, and money line betting analytics for all 32 NFL teams.
Nfl Betting How To
Want to get started with sports betting prediction tools? We'll walk you through it right here.
Best Sports Betting Analytics Tools
Nfl Betting Lines
What is Sports Betting Data Analytics?
Before a sports betting line gets released to the public, sportsbooks do a deep dive through all the data available to reach their published numbers. Thanks to the wonders of computers and algorithms, bettors can now do the same quickly and efficiently to find where the sportsbooks may be slightly off in their calculations.
There are three main categories which serve as the focal point for sports betting data analytics algorithms:
- Team/Player Stats: These are key stats that factor heavily into the handicapping process, such as points for and against. There may also be several sport-specific metrics considered.
- Team/Player Performance: This covers the performance of teams from both a straight-up and against the spread perspective with numerous subcategories.
- Betting data: This refers to specific data from the betting world, such as public money percentages and projected win probabilities.
While that covers the basics, remember that sports betting data can go much deeper and can be customized to personal specifications. Just like there's no one-size-fits-all for handicapping approaches, the same holds true on the analytics side.
Matchup Grades, Line Analysis & Odds Tracking
A sports betting data analytics tool takes a lot of the legwork out of your sports handicapping. Offerings may vary by tool, but here's a look at some of the main features you can expect to find.
- Best Bets: Matchup grades for each game with the top choices receiving the highest marks.
- Predicted Performance: An estimate of what's to come while analyzing the matchup and ancillary factors such as weather or injuries.
- Line Analysis: Helps you find lines that may be mispriced or inefficient for you to take advantage of.
- Public Money: A look at where the public money is flowing on a contest, as well as the percentage of tickets on each side.
- Odds Tracking: A glimpse at the lines and how they have been moving at various sportsbooks.
- Futures Trends: Analysis of key trends from a betting perspective over short- and long-term time frames such as record against the spread.
- Bet Optimizers: Can help you find the optimal plays for more advanced bet types such as parlays.
- Pro Bettor Report: An analysis of where the proverbial 'sharp' money has been flowing on a contest.
- Daily Fantasy Sports Tools: Lineup optimizers, projections and 'start or sit' recommendations are just a few of the features.
On a combined basis, an analytics tool is designed to help you:
- Identify betting value opportunities
- Maximize your betting returns long-term
As an example, the best bets feature goes through all of the matchups for the day and grades them on a scale. To identify the best of the best, the lines for the slate are compared to the results of the algorithm with the most inefficient numbers receiving the highest marks.
At the end of the day, sports betting data analytics tools save you a lot of time. In a perfect world, the overall effectiveness of the tool will lead you further down the road towards long-term profitability.
How to download a sports betting data app
There are a few sports betting data tools to consider using for the NFL and beyond. Even better, you can also access them on the go via their mobile apps.
To get started with a mobile sports betting analytics app, such as BetQL, click through on the link provided in the review or on this page. After entering a few simple details, your account will be created.
Best bonus slot machines. The first one is to trigger bonus features, while the second one is to give extra payouts. Scatter symbols don't have to land on a payline in order for the reward to be triggered. Instead, there just need to be 3 or more scatters visible on the reels at once. Many slot machines offer rewards for 3-5 scatter symbols. On average it will take 143 base game spins to trigger that bonus game. World Cup Mania Slot – One final slot which we have included on this bonus game frequency is the multi-stake World Cup Mania slot, that slot has a pick to win style bonus game which is triggered on average once every 63 when you play maximum line spins. The free spins bonus game should trigger on average once every 143 base game. You need to line up at least three of the bonus symbols when playing those slots on any activated payline, and for reference when you are playing all 15 paylines each slot has on offer you should trigger the pick to win picking round once every 63 spins, so you are over two times more likely to be awarded the pick to win bonus game than you are going to be awarded the free spins round! Slot games have a variety of bonus games that can be triggered in several ways. This can be via a certain number of scatter symbols appearing on the reels or a bonus symbol landing on the reels. It's always a great moment when the first few reels see key symbols land on the reels and you just wait to see if you can get the one you need to get you into a bonus round.
You can then browse around and view the tools in action and get a sense of the features and benefits you now have access to. BetQL can quickly point out edges that you may have missed while manually handicapping contests.
Next, download the mobile app for your iOS or Android device from the BetQL website. Once that's downloaded, log in and verify your account and subscription level and you're good to go.
The only thing you can't do on BetQL is make sports bets directly. For that, check out our detailed reviews of top sports betting operators.
Note: There's no restriction on how many legal US online sportsbook bonuses you can collect so you can create accounts at multiple sportsbooks and claim all of the free bet or new account offer.
NFL sports betting analytics tools
When it comes to sports betting in the US, the NFL is #1. The most betting action flows towards the NFL, and that translates into a ton of general attention across all forms of media. Each week, there's plenty of expert analysis to consider as we break down the games.
The NFL also translates well into the world of sports betting analytics. One of the big selling points of betting on the NFL is the weekly nature of the game, which affords some extra time to break down lines and scout for edges.
Betting analytics tools help tremendously on that front. BetQL, for example, gives you immediate statistical insight into the current matchups, shows you which way the money is flowing during the week and provides predictions on the most likely outcomes.
Thanks to machine-learning, the top betting analytics tools get better over time as well and that's a huge benefit over the course of an NFL season. Teams that get out of the gate like powerhouses may not be that way down the stretch and those who begin flat can pick up steam. Analytics spot those trends before they happen.
Nfl Betting Odds
The same holds true for betting on the NFL playoffs. Quite frankly, some clubs just aren't ready for primetime in spite of making it to the dance. Analytics help make sense of which squads are for real.
Betting analytics can be helpful for all sports, but trends and matchup data are particularly valuable for the NFL with a smaller set of matchups to look at. Since the NFL season is a big focal point for many bettors, finding edges in real-time make a world of difference in your quest for profitable NFL bets.
Sharp Picks, Public Betting & Line Movement in the NFL
Betting on the NFL goes much deeper than just analyzing the matchup and picking a winner or total points. You need a wider understanding of several outside factors that impact your bets week to week. Betting analytics tools and subscriptions makes that really simple.
First up, it's important to remember that NFL betting lines move from the initial release until the time you're ready to bet. While small ticks here or there may not seem like much, they could make the difference between profits and losses over the long term.
You should also know which way the the public is betting every week. While there will be games that are split down the middle, it's also not uncommon to find games in which the public clearly favors one side.
Of course, the public isn't always on the money. However, the proverbial sharp money has a track record that's certainly worth monitoring. Beyond figuring out which side is attracting the most action, you'll also want to understand which side is getting most of the sharp action.
Sports betting analytics tools sort out the data with just a few clicks or swipes. On their own, these pieces of information are important. When you put them all together with the rest of the handicapping puzzle, you'll find that you're making much more informed and confident decisions with your bets.
Prop bets, live betting & futures
While much of the focus for betting-related intel revolves around the big three bet types — moneylines, point spreads and totals (over/under) betting — there's a lot more out there to bet on. Betting analytics tools can help in that regard, too.
Top analytics providers also dig into prop betting and futures markets for multiple sports. It's the same overall concept as the algorithm analyzes the lines and helps to point out the opportunities which seem off or mispriced.
For example, a potentially profitable prop bet that's based off of a specific statistical accomplishment can be easily spotted with the assistance of analytics, which dig into the trends and provide performance projections.
As for futures, analytics can help spot the same opportunities for markets such as team win totals or player award winners. If you can find the dark horse in the futures market, you could be in line for a good score.
Analytics can even help with the fast-moving live betting markets. When you essentially have all of the information that you need at your fingertips, you can be more selective with your choices and jump on the ones that really stand out. Sports betting is a numbers game, so having data analytics at your disposal in real time is a boon for your overall wagering arsenal.
Sports Betting Data Analytics for Other Sports
While it does draw a substantial share of the attention, sports betting analytics doesn't begin and end with the NFL. Bet analytics and predictions are offered for a number of other sports, including for:
Daily sports such as NBA, MLB and the NHL can be pretty tough for the time-pressed bettor to stay on top of. Limited time equals less of a chance to find an edge, but you can find what you need to know with prediction providers.
You'll also find intel on sports that see less overall betting action, such as soccer. As a general rule, sportsbooks devote the bulk of their time to lines for sports that see the most action. That translates into inefficiencies being out there for the sports that don't attract as much action. Data analytics tools can quickly point you in the direction of potentially profitable opportunities.
For individual sports, lines will fluctuate in advance of the events, just like they do from release until game time for the team-based sports. This information is incredibly valuable as it points you towards overall market sentiment. When you combine that with tools that break down the public and sharp money, you're talking about a lot of data at your fingertips.
Predictive analytics in Fantasy Sports
While legal sports betting continues to grow in prominence, fantasy sports chugs steadily alongside as a way for fans to get a share of the action. Daily Fantasy Sports is still going strong and has been a game-changer for the way that fans interact with the sports they love.
As any seasoned fantasy player knows, winning consistently is easier said than done. While analytics is not the magic bullet in this regard, it can help do the same thing for your DFS pursuits as it does for sports betting: lead you on the path to making the best informed decisions that you can with the data at hand.
Some of the features you'll come across at leading sports betting analytics providers:
- Lineup Optimizers
- Start and Sit Notifications
- Sample Lineups
- Projections
It can be tough to build out competitive DFS lineups consistently, but it can certainly be done if you're willing to do the legwork. DFS analytics and projections cuts down the time that takes tremendously.
For each slate of games, there are optimal plays, value picks, sleepers, and players who probably should be benched. Sure, you can figure this out on your own by scanning through dozens of individual DFS content sites.
A quality analytics provider will sift through the noise for each slate and provide you with the answers to those questions. From there, it's a matter of building out the lineup you feel best about while considering the wealth of information at hand.
In its infancy, DFS revolved around team sports, but that's no longer the case. How to play lawn tennis in hindi. Here's a list of the major sports you can play DFS with at leading operators.
- NHL DFS
- College Football DFS
- College Basketball DFS
- Golf DFS
- Tennis DFS
- UFC DFS
Free Sports Betting Picks vs. Analytics Tools
Sports betting analytics sounds great and all, but is there a way to get that information for free? Is it really that much different from Colin Cowherd‘s weekly picks or what the ESPN broadcast team predicts?
The short answer is, well, yes. Quite a bit.
The reach of sports betting analytics & prediction has grown tremendously in recent years. A few years back this was considered a niche topic but that's no longer the case. It's not too hard to draw a line to the explosive growth of sports betting as a catalyst for that.
As sports betting continues to go mainstream while being legalized in more states, bettors — both new and experienced — are continually on the hunt for edges. Sports betting data and relevant stats are big discussion points, and there are plenty of places to find free information. But gathering everything you need from free resources can take some doing.
There are some resources which specialize in one area, others that have a broader reach, and more that go another direction. If you put in the work, you can gather the best of the best into something that may work for you. Analytics tools or subscription services such as BetQL do that work for you and the time savings simply can't be overstated.
Sports betting is a results-oriented business. At the end of the day, there are winners and losers, and that plays out over longer time frames as well. Sports betting analytics tools cut through all of the noise and get to the heart of the statistically probable outcomes immediately.
There are three main categories which serve as the focal point for sports betting data analytics algorithms:
- Team/Player Stats: These are key stats that factor heavily into the handicapping process, such as points for and against. There may also be several sport-specific metrics considered.
- Team/Player Performance: This covers the performance of teams from both a straight-up and against the spread perspective with numerous subcategories.
- Betting data: This refers to specific data from the betting world, such as public money percentages and projected win probabilities.
While that covers the basics, remember that sports betting data can go much deeper and can be customized to personal specifications. Just like there's no one-size-fits-all for handicapping approaches, the same holds true on the analytics side.
Matchup Grades, Line Analysis & Odds Tracking
A sports betting data analytics tool takes a lot of the legwork out of your sports handicapping. Offerings may vary by tool, but here's a look at some of the main features you can expect to find.
- Best Bets: Matchup grades for each game with the top choices receiving the highest marks.
- Predicted Performance: An estimate of what's to come while analyzing the matchup and ancillary factors such as weather or injuries.
- Line Analysis: Helps you find lines that may be mispriced or inefficient for you to take advantage of.
- Public Money: A look at where the public money is flowing on a contest, as well as the percentage of tickets on each side.
- Odds Tracking: A glimpse at the lines and how they have been moving at various sportsbooks.
- Futures Trends: Analysis of key trends from a betting perspective over short- and long-term time frames such as record against the spread.
- Bet Optimizers: Can help you find the optimal plays for more advanced bet types such as parlays.
- Pro Bettor Report: An analysis of where the proverbial 'sharp' money has been flowing on a contest.
- Daily Fantasy Sports Tools: Lineup optimizers, projections and 'start or sit' recommendations are just a few of the features.
On a combined basis, an analytics tool is designed to help you:
- Identify betting value opportunities
- Maximize your betting returns long-term
As an example, the best bets feature goes through all of the matchups for the day and grades them on a scale. To identify the best of the best, the lines for the slate are compared to the results of the algorithm with the most inefficient numbers receiving the highest marks.
At the end of the day, sports betting data analytics tools save you a lot of time. In a perfect world, the overall effectiveness of the tool will lead you further down the road towards long-term profitability.
How to download a sports betting data app
There are a few sports betting data tools to consider using for the NFL and beyond. Even better, you can also access them on the go via their mobile apps.
To get started with a mobile sports betting analytics app, such as BetQL, click through on the link provided in the review or on this page. After entering a few simple details, your account will be created.
Best bonus slot machines. The first one is to trigger bonus features, while the second one is to give extra payouts. Scatter symbols don't have to land on a payline in order for the reward to be triggered. Instead, there just need to be 3 or more scatters visible on the reels at once. Many slot machines offer rewards for 3-5 scatter symbols. On average it will take 143 base game spins to trigger that bonus game. World Cup Mania Slot – One final slot which we have included on this bonus game frequency is the multi-stake World Cup Mania slot, that slot has a pick to win style bonus game which is triggered on average once every 63 when you play maximum line spins. The free spins bonus game should trigger on average once every 143 base game. You need to line up at least three of the bonus symbols when playing those slots on any activated payline, and for reference when you are playing all 15 paylines each slot has on offer you should trigger the pick to win picking round once every 63 spins, so you are over two times more likely to be awarded the pick to win bonus game than you are going to be awarded the free spins round! Slot games have a variety of bonus games that can be triggered in several ways. This can be via a certain number of scatter symbols appearing on the reels or a bonus symbol landing on the reels. It's always a great moment when the first few reels see key symbols land on the reels and you just wait to see if you can get the one you need to get you into a bonus round.
You can then browse around and view the tools in action and get a sense of the features and benefits you now have access to. BetQL can quickly point out edges that you may have missed while manually handicapping contests.
Next, download the mobile app for your iOS or Android device from the BetQL website. Once that's downloaded, log in and verify your account and subscription level and you're good to go.
The only thing you can't do on BetQL is make sports bets directly. For that, check out our detailed reviews of top sports betting operators.
Note: There's no restriction on how many legal US online sportsbook bonuses you can collect so you can create accounts at multiple sportsbooks and claim all of the free bet or new account offer.
NFL sports betting analytics tools
When it comes to sports betting in the US, the NFL is #1. The most betting action flows towards the NFL, and that translates into a ton of general attention across all forms of media. Each week, there's plenty of expert analysis to consider as we break down the games.
The NFL also translates well into the world of sports betting analytics. One of the big selling points of betting on the NFL is the weekly nature of the game, which affords some extra time to break down lines and scout for edges.
Betting analytics tools help tremendously on that front. BetQL, for example, gives you immediate statistical insight into the current matchups, shows you which way the money is flowing during the week and provides predictions on the most likely outcomes.
Thanks to machine-learning, the top betting analytics tools get better over time as well and that's a huge benefit over the course of an NFL season. Teams that get out of the gate like powerhouses may not be that way down the stretch and those who begin flat can pick up steam. Analytics spot those trends before they happen.
Nfl Betting Odds
The same holds true for betting on the NFL playoffs. Quite frankly, some clubs just aren't ready for primetime in spite of making it to the dance. Analytics help make sense of which squads are for real.
Betting analytics can be helpful for all sports, but trends and matchup data are particularly valuable for the NFL with a smaller set of matchups to look at. Since the NFL season is a big focal point for many bettors, finding edges in real-time make a world of difference in your quest for profitable NFL bets.
Sharp Picks, Public Betting & Line Movement in the NFL
Betting on the NFL goes much deeper than just analyzing the matchup and picking a winner or total points. You need a wider understanding of several outside factors that impact your bets week to week. Betting analytics tools and subscriptions makes that really simple.
First up, it's important to remember that NFL betting lines move from the initial release until the time you're ready to bet. While small ticks here or there may not seem like much, they could make the difference between profits and losses over the long term.
You should also know which way the the public is betting every week. While there will be games that are split down the middle, it's also not uncommon to find games in which the public clearly favors one side.
Of course, the public isn't always on the money. However, the proverbial sharp money has a track record that's certainly worth monitoring. Beyond figuring out which side is attracting the most action, you'll also want to understand which side is getting most of the sharp action.
Sports betting analytics tools sort out the data with just a few clicks or swipes. On their own, these pieces of information are important. When you put them all together with the rest of the handicapping puzzle, you'll find that you're making much more informed and confident decisions with your bets.
Prop bets, live betting & futures
While much of the focus for betting-related intel revolves around the big three bet types — moneylines, point spreads and totals (over/under) betting — there's a lot more out there to bet on. Betting analytics tools can help in that regard, too.
Top analytics providers also dig into prop betting and futures markets for multiple sports. It's the same overall concept as the algorithm analyzes the lines and helps to point out the opportunities which seem off or mispriced.
For example, a potentially profitable prop bet that's based off of a specific statistical accomplishment can be easily spotted with the assistance of analytics, which dig into the trends and provide performance projections.
As for futures, analytics can help spot the same opportunities for markets such as team win totals or player award winners. If you can find the dark horse in the futures market, you could be in line for a good score.
Analytics can even help with the fast-moving live betting markets. When you essentially have all of the information that you need at your fingertips, you can be more selective with your choices and jump on the ones that really stand out. Sports betting is a numbers game, so having data analytics at your disposal in real time is a boon for your overall wagering arsenal.
Sports Betting Data Analytics for Other Sports
While it does draw a substantial share of the attention, sports betting analytics doesn't begin and end with the NFL. Bet analytics and predictions are offered for a number of other sports, including for:
Daily sports such as NBA, MLB and the NHL can be pretty tough for the time-pressed bettor to stay on top of. Limited time equals less of a chance to find an edge, but you can find what you need to know with prediction providers.
You'll also find intel on sports that see less overall betting action, such as soccer. As a general rule, sportsbooks devote the bulk of their time to lines for sports that see the most action. That translates into inefficiencies being out there for the sports that don't attract as much action. Data analytics tools can quickly point you in the direction of potentially profitable opportunities.
For individual sports, lines will fluctuate in advance of the events, just like they do from release until game time for the team-based sports. This information is incredibly valuable as it points you towards overall market sentiment. When you combine that with tools that break down the public and sharp money, you're talking about a lot of data at your fingertips.
Predictive analytics in Fantasy Sports
While legal sports betting continues to grow in prominence, fantasy sports chugs steadily alongside as a way for fans to get a share of the action. Daily Fantasy Sports is still going strong and has been a game-changer for the way that fans interact with the sports they love.
As any seasoned fantasy player knows, winning consistently is easier said than done. While analytics is not the magic bullet in this regard, it can help do the same thing for your DFS pursuits as it does for sports betting: lead you on the path to making the best informed decisions that you can with the data at hand.
Some of the features you'll come across at leading sports betting analytics providers:
- Lineup Optimizers
- Start and Sit Notifications
- Sample Lineups
- Projections
It can be tough to build out competitive DFS lineups consistently, but it can certainly be done if you're willing to do the legwork. DFS analytics and projections cuts down the time that takes tremendously.
For each slate of games, there are optimal plays, value picks, sleepers, and players who probably should be benched. Sure, you can figure this out on your own by scanning through dozens of individual DFS content sites.
A quality analytics provider will sift through the noise for each slate and provide you with the answers to those questions. From there, it's a matter of building out the lineup you feel best about while considering the wealth of information at hand.
In its infancy, DFS revolved around team sports, but that's no longer the case. How to play lawn tennis in hindi. Here's a list of the major sports you can play DFS with at leading operators.
- NHL DFS
- College Football DFS
- College Basketball DFS
- Golf DFS
- Tennis DFS
- UFC DFS
Free Sports Betting Picks vs. Analytics Tools
Sports betting analytics sounds great and all, but is there a way to get that information for free? Is it really that much different from Colin Cowherd‘s weekly picks or what the ESPN broadcast team predicts?
The short answer is, well, yes. Quite a bit.
The reach of sports betting analytics & prediction has grown tremendously in recent years. A few years back this was considered a niche topic but that's no longer the case. It's not too hard to draw a line to the explosive growth of sports betting as a catalyst for that.
As sports betting continues to go mainstream while being legalized in more states, bettors — both new and experienced — are continually on the hunt for edges. Sports betting data and relevant stats are big discussion points, and there are plenty of places to find free information. But gathering everything you need from free resources can take some doing.
There are some resources which specialize in one area, others that have a broader reach, and more that go another direction. If you put in the work, you can gather the best of the best into something that may work for you. Analytics tools or subscription services such as BetQL do that work for you and the time savings simply can't be overstated.
Sports betting is a results-oriented business. At the end of the day, there are winners and losers, and that plays out over longer time frames as well. Sports betting analytics tools cut through all of the noise and get to the heart of the statistically probable outcomes immediately.
How data analytics impacts professional sports and betting
Professional sports as a whole have evolved tremendously through the years. In decades past, gut feel and group decisions were among the driving forces behind team management and roster decisions.
Fast forward to today and the overwhelming majority of organizations now factor in tons of data into the equation. Modern analytics have been a game-changer for how teams are run and decisions are made.
As a quick example, a player may look like a fantastic fit for an organization due to certain production metrics that receive tons of attention. However, a deeper dive into other less-followed facets may reveal an entirely different story.
Interestingly, the same parallels can be drawn into the evolution of sports betting. In days past, a prevailing image was one of the handicapper who spent tons of time gathering hard-to-find information in hopes of beating the lines.
In today's world, many approaches are more analytics-based. While there's still a place for gut feel, analyzing what the numbers have to say in quick and efficient fashion can open the doors to wagering opportunities you may have missed, and also steer you away from those that are the equivalent of fool's gold.
History of predictive analytics in sports betting
Data-driven approaches to sports betting may have risen to prominence in recent times, but the history actually spans back over several decades. For the roots, we need to look no further than the rise of personal computing and the explosive growth of the internet.
If we look through that lens, rudimentary programs could be found throughout the 1980s. As computing power advanced, better forms were built. Once the internet came to the forefront, that inspired a whole new generation of enthusiasm for programming.
In the early days of the web, you could find basic sites that were slow and featured some bare bones data that could be useful. Let's just say things are much more advanced in the present.
We are currently in the midst of a boom time for legal sports betting in the US, and the same holds true for data analytics. That said, the cream will rise to the top. It can be quite expensive to maintain feeds of data from sportsbooks and the various leagues, and not everyone is welcome to stay around and party.
As we move forward, the top operators will simply have access to the best stuff. Hence, their tools will be viewed as the go-to resources for sports bettors to lean on.
Using data analytics to win at sports betting
So sports betting data analytics sounds awesome, but can it really help you cash more tickets? It certainly can, but that also comes with a caveat.
There are no guarantees when it comes to sports betting. Balls bounce funny, athletes get injured and those associated with contests can make bad calls that impact the results among so many other factors.
That being the case, there is no way to predict with 100% certainty exactly what is going to happen on the field of play. This is true regardless of how strong and sound a betting tool or system may be.
While that all may sound discouraging, there is a rather large bright side. If you take the time to build out a solid handicapping system, you're working towards having more winners than losers and turning a profit.
Data analytics is another key piece of the puzzle which can help take you to the next level. While there are still no guarantees, adding analytics into the equation points you towards making the optimal decisions based on the information at hand.
If you do that often enough, then chances are you'll come out on top more often than not. Here are some of the key ways you can use analytics to your advantage.
- Predictions: Algorithm-driven calls which point you to the most likely outcome based on the data.
- Trends: Staying on top of how teams perform in various situations is a piece of cake thanks to analytics tools.
- Analysis: Which lines look most beatable from a slate of games? You can find the answer in seconds.
- Sentiment: Analytics tools help you get to the bottom of where the public and sharp money is flowing in an instant.
Analytics are particularly useful for games you may be on the fence about, while they can also point you to opportunities you may have missed and also encourage you to shy away from less than optimal plays.
While most MLB models make projections based on how a team's been hitting as a whole, our offensive projections are based on each and every player included in that particular team's lineup for the day. This means our model waits for each lineup to be posted (usually within a few hours before first pitch), then analyzes it on a player-by-player basis. This method is to ensure the highest accuracy in predicting a team's performance.
The pitching/hitting evaluation component of the model uses advanced MLB metrics that go way over the casual baseball fan's head. Exit velocity, batted ball profiles, splits, plate discipline metrics, park factors, performance with or against certain pitches/velocities (combined with pitch usage rates), BABIP, FIP/xFIP, SIERA, and wRC+ are among the many metrics incorporated in the model. The challenge of MLB is analyzing advanced data to determine which players have been lucky and unlucky in relation to their actual performance. This is something that public/square bettors are very poor at figuring out, leaving a lot of value on the table in the betting market. Much like a player projection system, our model identifies a 'true' performance level for players and projects games accordingly.
